Forex Analysis

The mid-term analysis of exchange rates on 11.30.2015

Hello.Let's look at a couple of interesting points to trade in the Forex market 30.11.2015

Calendar anticipated events

7:00 Retail sales in Germany (m / m)
7:00 German retail sales (y / y)


USDSADDaili 30112015

on a pair USDCAD formed a price pattern absorption in the region of 1.33000.It seems that the lower price level are not allowed and will continue to increase in the trend further.The immediate aim of 1.34500 very close, but we hope that it will pass without complications.


USDZhPIDaili 30112015

On USDJPY just can not move below 122.34 and formed absorption.I should not expect continued growth and consider this pair only purchase.


ERZhPIDaili 3012015

On EURJPY stuck near 130.00 and formed another Doji pattern.Shopping on this pair do not see.Waiting for the continuation of the trend down and fall to 129.00.


unnoticed on the background of the celebration of Thanksgiving in the US was 5.5% drop in the Shanghai Composite Index on Friday.Applying rigid restrictions for brokers and the unconvincing performa

nce of industry sector profits helped awaken bears.

also growing rumors that Beijing started its own to support the stock exchange campaign.In fact, the market in China can quickly move in a chaotic state.Foreign investors can at any time begin to withdraw investment from speculation about the Fed raising interest rates, the end of this year or banal concerns for the state of the economy.Indeed, the concern in the markets of China is rapidly gaining strength and strikes with the force of a tsunami.We will monitor developments.


Some events in Switzerland are also worthy of mention.local media report at the weekend quoted officials of the department of tourism promotion, insisting on limiting exchange rate EURCHF pair to the level of 1.15.Also, in his comments on the leader of the Swiss National Bank Thomas Jordan said last week that negative rates are already proven to be effective, and therefore can be seen on the further reduction of the current values ​​below -0.75%.Most likely, before the market rumors reached early, whereby the USDCHF pair reached on Friday trading his six-year high.


While the euro is struggling with weak growth and high unemployment, the US does not know the problems with the creation of new jobs.Data on Friday showed unemployment rate of about seven and a half year low, keeping the value of 5%.

But even if unemployment data did not justify itself, the Fed still intends to raise rates at the meeting on 15-16 December, and given the almost full employment level, the debate is likely to be focused on the decision to raise rates than in the discussion of short-term stimulus.

At the same time, a headwind for the Fed could serve strengthening of the dollar against other major currencies in recent months that have already adopted measures to tighten monetary conditions.However, the US market is less susceptible to movements in exchange rates than, for example, the same Europe as well as the impact on monetary policy it has much weaker.

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