Forex Analysis

Forecast the movement of currency pairs on 1 October 2015

Hello.Let's look at some interesting situations in the Forex market on 1.10.2015

Calendar anticipated events

04:00 China.index of business activity in the manufacturing sector in September.Forecast: 49.6 \\ Prev .: 49.7
04:45 China.index of business activity in the manufacturing sector by Caixin September.Forecast: 47.2 \\ Prev .: 47.0
10:55 Eurozone.index of business activity in the manufacturing sector in Germany in September.Forecast: 52.5 \\ Prev .: 52.5
11:30 UK.index of business activity in the manufacturing sector by Caixin September.Forecast: 51.3 \\ Prev .: 51.5


GVPUSDaili 1102015

on a pair GBPUSD seems to have gathered a lot of buyers in the area of ​​the level 1.5200 and the price moved down against them recoilless.Formed Pin bar pattern under fairly strong level.I assume the continuation of the fall.But sales should go carefully, becauseIt has been going on too long recoilless downward movement and you can get just a correction, selling at the bottom.


GBPZhPIDaili 1102105

on GBPJPY also pin-bar and below the level of the last local minimum.The transaction log, I think it is not worth it.Current sales better close now or in the region of 180.500.Well, or transfer to breakeven.I think to wait for the development at the level of the event and then draw conclusions on further transactions.


USDZhPIDaili 110215

on a pair USDJPY bounced back from the lower boundary of the triangle and formed a Doji pattern.It is not even doing what any version, just waiting for release and development of the situation.The main hope of course that the output will be in the direction of the trend.

Fundamental analysis


head of the International Monetary Fund, said the alleged fall of global growth compared to the previous year.

Kristen Lagarde also assured that only a modest acceleration expected in 2016.Economic "vicious circle" on the head of the IMF believes is caused by the prospect of higher interest rates in the US, as well as the decline in the Chinese economy.

Just Lagarde stressed that these factors could jeopardize the recent economic gains in Asia and Latin America.The good news is that with all this, there is a slight growth in the developed economies and the moderate recovery in the euro area, as well as Japan returned to positive growth.Activity in the US and the UK also remained at a decent level.

Thus, for emerging countries the news is not so good.They are, according to Lagarde expects the fifth consecutive year of declining growth rates.

also the head of the Foundation added that on the economic front, "there are a number of reasons for the manifestation of anxiety contribute to uncertainty and high market volatility."

rise in US interest rates in the strengthening of the dollar could lead to currency mismatches, which in turn will lead to corporate defaults and the vicious circle between corporations, banks and governments. "Just Lagarde pointed to a "sharp slowdown" in the growth of world trade and the fall in commodity prices, which brought damage to developing countries exporting raw materials.


Thursday published official data on the UK balance of payments.Office for National Statistics to measure the difference between import and export trade and investment.

deficit fell from £ 24 billion., Or 5.2% of national income in the first quarter of 2015 to £ 16.8 or 3.6% of GDP currently.

ONS also announced a number of changes to economic growth.Were revised upwards growth figures in the period between 2011 and 2013, indicating that the economy is now 5.9% higher than the pre-crisis peak, compared with a previous estimate of 5.2%.

It also shows that the UK economy has passed its pre-crisis level in the second quarter of 2013, a quarter earlier than previously thought.

Upward revisions to GDP in recent years show an increase in average a little more than 2% within six years, as the economy growth is also observed in mid-2009.

Similar growth rates in the post-crisis world put the UK in a number of leading major Western economies, along with the US and Germany, in terms of growth during the recovery.

third estimate of growth in the second quarter was 0.7%, unchanged from the previous estimate.However, at the annual rate of growth has been revised downward to a 2.6% to 2.4%.


Unemployment in Germany remained at historically low levels in September, on the basis of the recovery in Europe's largest economy.

But analysts warn of a possible loss of this situation due to the mass influx of refugees, along with the potential negative side effects because of the scandal at Volkswagen.

German unemployment rate, which is measured against the working population as a whole is at 6.4% in September, unchanged from August, and showing the lowest level since 1990, according to the Federal Labour Office.

In specific terms, the number of people registered as unemployed in Germany grew by a seasonally adjusted 2,000 to 2.7 million. According to the Bureau.

Analysts, on average, had forecast growth of up to 5 thousand.

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