Forex Analysis

Bezindikatorny analysis of the major currency pairs on 12/16/2015

Hello.Below is some advice on forex trading on 16.12.2015

Calendar anticipated events

11:30 Eurozone.index of business activity in the manufacturing sector in Germany
12:30 UK.The average wage, taking into account premiums
12:30 UK.Changing the number of applications for unemployment benefits
16:30 US.The number of building permits issued
22:00 US.Economic forecasts FOMC
22:00 US.Statement FOMC
22:00 US.The decision on the interest rate the Fed
22:30 US.Speech by Fed Chairman Yellen


USDSADDaili 16122015

On USDCAD pair formed another Doji at level 1.3800 area.It seems necessary to wait for the beginning correction after a long growth.I go down to the area 1,3600-1,3550.Sales do not see, becausethey are against the trend.


NZDOSDaili 16122015

On NZDUSD after yesterday Acquisitions at 0.67000, formed pin-bar by calling on 0.6800.I think the growth will continue to 0.69000, but will probably be a small correction.Sales do not consider asthey are against the trend.


ERZhPIDaili 16122015

On EURJPY continue a series of Doji patterns in the level of 133.500 area.It looks like going down.Nearest goal underneath 131.00.But the deal probably will not be considered here, sinceprecarious situation.

Fundamental analysis


Yesterday Fed enjoy a nice two-day meeting, to weigh the prospects for raising the key interest rate, which may indicate the end of a more than seven-year period of the crisis and the policy of cheap money.

The US economy is currently growing at a moderate pace and the Fed is expected will come to the conclusion that it is time to move away from ultra-low interest rates, based on the recovery from the Great Recession of 2008-2009.

Some economists inside and outside of the US central bank believes that the economy is still not ready for the increase in the price of money, and that a compelling reason, such as, for example, the threat of inflation, to raise rates there.

Yellen, will announce its decision today at 22:00 (GMT +03: 00) at the head of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the Fed, along with forecasts regarding growth, inflation and interest rates in the next two years.

Most economists expect the federal funds rate will be raised from the current 0-0.25% a quarter percentage point.Meanwhile, the dollar was little changed on Tuesday, trading at $ 1.0914 per euro, but rose to 121.76 yen.However, it is expected that if the rate will increase all the same, that the dollar will be much stronger, and weakness should be expected in the stock markets.

UK inflation data in the UK for the first time in four months show a positive change.

rate of consumer price inflation rose 0.1% in November, according to Office for National Statistics.In this case, the main contribution to the acceleration of inflation have made transportation costs, as well as the price of alcohol and tobacco products.However, the prices of clothing put pressure on inflation in October-November.

Monthly inflation ranged between -0.1% and 0.1% in the last 10 months, in response to the low oil prices and fierce competition among stores with total demand of goods networks.

At the moment, inflation remains below the 2% target set by the Bank of England.Almost completely absent inflationary pressures gives the right to think that the Bank will not raise rates soon, probably until the second half of fiscal 2016.This is largely allows to think that the pound will entirely depend on consumer sentiment and manufacturing activity, which is observed as a significant stagnation.At the same time the British pound changed little against the US dollar after a reading on inflation, mainly due to the fact that the data meet the expectations and projections of most economists.


BOJ officials are showing confidence in the stability of the economy, closing the eyes to the impact of lower oil prices and inflation expectations.

indicators have improved in the run-up to the Bank of Japan's decision on monetary policy on Friday.Although inflation remains far from its 2% target this year, and lower oil prices lead to a reduction in cost to the consumer, the officials decided to keep the monetary policy unchanged.

Bank of Japan, obviously, holds a waiting strategy, while continuing to expand the program of quantitative easing up to ¥ 80 the end of this year.Low oil prices will continue to put pressure on the inflation rate, which significantly shift the timing of the target level.At the moment, the Japanese yen is trading with a strong bias against the US dollar, and this situation may be exacerbated if expectations about the increase by the Fed rate is justified.

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